The world isn't short of copper. The LME is short of warrants.
Registered warrants have fallen to 94.2kt in a month (-52.7%), with the cancellation ratio pinned near 58%. Over the same stretch COMEX stocks climbed to a record 720kt and another 141kt sits off-warrant in LME sheds — the copper exists; it just isn't deliverable. Cash–3M has run from +40 to +123 (0.87%) in a week, and the Holdings report shows no one above 50% — which means no lending-guidance cap. This backwardation is unanchored: no rule puts a ceiling on it (contrast aluminium, where a 50–80% holder's lending obligation pins the spread). The import window is shut and exports are blocked by duty; China's two exchanges hold 86kt combined — less than the LME's own warrant pool. The nearest third-Wednesday delivery date is 8 trading days away.
Delivery countdown: 8 tdBackwardation: 0.87% and wideningConcentration: no holder ≥50% (uncapped)Arb channels: shut both ways
Registered warrants (deliverable)
94.2 kt
1M -52.7% · cancellations 58.4%
Cash–3M
+123 $/t
a week ago +40
To nearest 3rd Wednesday
8 trading days
front-month OI 46,590 lots ≈ 12.4× warrants
Where did the copper go (kt)
Warrants keep draining while off-warrant stock (T-3) builds — metal hasn't left the sheds, it's just been de-warranted
LME on-warrantLME off-warrant (T-3)
Two markets, two directions (indexed, Jul 10 = 100)
LME vs COMEX total stocks — dislocation, not shortage
LME totalCOMEX total
02
What Changed This Week
Marginal moves over the past five sessions
Aluminium AL · Concentration step-up▲
30-40%→50-80%
The top occupied band in the Holdings reports stepped up from 30-40% to 50-80%. That crosses the 50% threshold: lending guidance now caps the tom-next premium the holder can charge.
Zinc ZN · A step from export parity▲
-999 yuan/t
On a 0% export-duty and CNY600/t cost assumption, the SHFE/LME ratio sits just 999 yuan/t from export break-even. If it opens, Chinese metal starts flowing back offshore — the natural brake on this structure.
Copper CU · Backwardation accelerating▲
+40.5→+123.1 $/t
Cash-3M moved from +40.5 to +123.1 (+0.87%) in a week. The slope matters more than the level.
Zinc ZN · Cancellations jump▲
17.5%→24.3%
Up 6.8pp in a week — rising intent to take delivery, a leading signal of pressure on the deliverable pool.
“What do you deliver?” — front-month exposure runs ~12× the deliverable pool, 8 trading days out
Closing stock
226.7 kt
-5.2k d/d · 1w -11.3%
On-warrant stock
94.2 kt
1M -52.7%
Cancellation ratio
58.4%
1w -1.8pp
Cash–3M
+123.1
back 0.87% · 1w +40.5
Off-warrant (T-3)
140.8 kt
> on-warrant · relief buffer
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 46,590 lots ≈ 1,165kt — 12.4× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-04)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
21
S
2
L
2
S
L
21
S
3
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-04)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bandsStructure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
▸ Day-by-day band tracking, score detail and trigger levels are internal-edition content
The deepest backwardation of the six (1.7%); stocks and concentration tightening together
Closing stock
97.5 kt
-1.0k d/d · 1w -3.2%
On-warrant stock
73.8 kt
1M -15.6%
Cancellation ratio
24.3%
1w +6.7pp
Cash–3M
+65.7
back 1.71% · 1w +54.4
Off-warrant (T-3)
17.6 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 29,889 lots ≈ 747kt — 10.1× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-04)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
3
S
21
L
1
S
41
L
3
S
22
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-04)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
×1
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bandsIn the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
▸ Day-by-day band tracking, score detail and trigger levels are internal-edition content
Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose
Closing stock
257.9 kt
-1.5k d/d · 1w -3.2%
On-warrant stock
244.7 kt
1M -0.7%
Cancellation ratio
5.1%
1w -2.8pp
Cash–3M
+4.7
back 0.14% · 1w +33.4
Off-warrant (T-3)
95.1 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 72,868 lots ≈ 1,822kt — 7.4× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-04)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
41
S
L
3
SOCR unreliable — excluded ⚠
L
4
S
12
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-04)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
×1
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance activeIf concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
▸ Day-by-day band tracking, score detail and trigger levels are internal-edition content
Tin SNRisk 27 · LowCancel 17.1%C-3M -316Cover 4.4×▼ expand
Very thin absolute stock (5.8kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant
Closing stock
5.8 kt
-0.1k d/d · 1w -6.5%
On-warrant stock
4.8 kt
1M -26.2%
Cancellation ratio
17.1%
1w +1.7pp
Cash–3M
-316.0
contango 0.57% · 1w -363.0
Off-warrant (T-3)
1.5 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 4,220 lots ≈ 21kt — 4.4× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-04)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
22
S
7
L
5
S
111
L
22
S
211
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-04)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bandsLoose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
▸ Day-by-day band tracking, score detail and trigger levels are internal-edition content
Lead PBRisk 11 · LowCancel 15.6%C-3M -48Cover 1.6×▼ expand
Loose on both ends
Closing stock
428.4 kt
-3.1k d/d · 1w -3.9%
On-warrant stock
361.5 kt
1M +32.3%
Cancellation ratio
15.6%
1w -2.9pp
Cash–3M
-47.6
contango 2.59% · 1w -41.1
Off-warrant (T-3)
38.0 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 22,766 lots ≈ 569kt — 1.6× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-04)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
21
S
23
L
41
S
2
L
11
S
41
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-04)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
No significant concentration in the Holdings reportLoose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
▸ Day-by-day band tracking, score detail and trigger levels are internal-edition content
Loose across the board; the story is the import window
Closing stock
264.4 kt
-0.3k d/d · 1w -1.2%
On-warrant stock
255.9 kt
1M -0.8%
Cancellation ratio
3.2%
1w -1.1pp
Cash–3M
-197.6
contango 1.19% · 1w -193.2
Off-warrant (T-3)
93.0 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 36,668 lots ≈ 220kt — 0.9× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-04)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
22
S
L
21
S
31
L
23
S
21
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-04)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
No significant concentration in the Holdings reportLoose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
▸ Day-by-day band tracking, score detail and trigger levels are internal-edition content
05
Cross-Market & Arb Windows
Import / export window scale (SHFE÷LME ratio space)
Left = export parity, right = import parity (backed out of the day's import-cost model); dot = current ratio
Export estimate: LME × FX (6.7455) × (1 − export duty) − SHFE − CNY600/t costs. Zinc duty 0% (confirmed); other duties are working assumptions. Lead omitted (no SHFE print).
Copper · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)
Persistently negative = Chinese metal cannot flow to the LME
Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)
The only positive among the six
Metal
LME stock
SHFE stock*
COMEX stock
SHFE receipts
Import P&L
Export P&L est.
Read
Copper CU
226.7 kt
69.3 kt (-276)
720.1 kt
23,427 (-300)
-825
-22,709
LME draining while COMEX builds — dislocation persists; the import window is nearly open, which would drain Asian sheds further
Zinc ZN
97.5 kt
151.5 kt (+963)
3.0 kt
111,155 (-986)
-4,340
-999near
A step from export parity: if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia
Aluminium AL
257.9 kt
448.7 kt (-6,350)
1.6 kt
308,803 (-2,598)
-2,865
-5,840
Window firmly shut; heavy SHFE stocks, onshore/offshore structures diverging
Tin SN
5.8 kt
5.3 kt (-170)
—
—
-12,626
-91,737
Window shut; the thinnest stocks of the six on both exchanges
Lead PB
428.4 kt
71.6 kt (+6,437)
1.4 kt
57,482 (-1,771)
-15,878
—
Window shut; loose on both ends
Nickel NI
264.4 kt
112.0 kt (+1,882)
—
100,791 (-66)
+7,327
-43,146
The only open window, and it widened this week
* SHFE stocks are weekly (31-Jul-26); COMEX copper read as reported; import P&L is the 15:00 snapshot.
06
Methodology & Data Notes
Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)
The score aggregates five dimensions under fixed rules: holdings concentration, front-month exposure vs the deliverable pool, cancellation and drawdown momentum, futures-side concentration, and spread confirmation. Fully rule-based and auditable; the exact point mappings are internal-edition content.
LME lending guidance
Position*
Max tom-next lending premium
50–79.99%
0.5% of prior cash price
80–89.99%
0.25% of prior cash price
90–100%
At level (no premium)
* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.
Data chain & lags
LME official reports captured daily at 06:30 SGT into structured factor tables. Stocks/prices are T-1; banding and holdings are published by the LME on a T+2 basis; off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.
Data quality
This issue's sentinels: 21 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 5 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 1 curve outliers excluded. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.
Disclaimer
Market-structure research only; not investment advice. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices.
Metals Go Where · 2026-08-07 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice